Disclaimer: (U-WIRE) BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - For as long as he can remember, Mark Johnson, a former Indiana University student, wanted to combine his love of sports and statistics. He got his chance recently when he was hired by the St. Louis Cardinals to work as a quantitative analyst.
Essentially, Johnson uses statistics and computer modeling to evaluate which players the Cardinals should sign or trade, how much they should be paid and what their ideal line-up would be. It might sound like a simple task, but with the number of players in the major leagues and the 40-man roster of 15 minor league teams, it's anything but.
"The more accurate the numbers, the better decisions can be made," Johnson said. "Of course, finding those accurate numbers is a challenge."
Johnson's interest in math and computers began when he was a student at IU. After earning a bachelor's degree in computer science, Johnson continued his education at IU, receiving a master's degree in mathematics. He then went on to Princeton University, where he earned his doctorate in applied and computational mathematics.
Johnson credits the success of Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics, as the reason many teams have begun to bring analysts on board. Beane, known for drafting unorthodox players, helped the Athletics to a 102-60 record in 2002 and has continued to be successful despite having one of the lowest payrolls in Major League Baseball. The Athletics also had a 20-game winning streak in 2002, one game short of the all-time record. The book "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" by Michael Lewis, examined the A's and Beane's role in their success.
It was the idea of using unconventional methods of evaluation that got Johnson interested in quantitative analysis for sports. With his brother, Matt, and friend Rob Beck, Johnson created SportMetrika, a service which consults in sports. The group spoke with commissioners of various organizations and received overwhelming feedback and job offers, including Johnson's opportunity with the Cardinals.
"All of the sports are interested in changing," Johnson said. "The more information a team can get and the better tools they have to analyze it, the more accurately they can make decisions, like trying to win."
Johnson said he will continue to evaluate the various computer programs the Cardinals currently use in their decision-making process, and his goal for 2004 is to "create systems we can hand to decision makers and help them use." At the same time, Johnson is training someone else on the staff who will be able to do his job should he leave.
Johnson will also be busy this June with the baseball draft. He considers this his first big test -- he will be evaluating college and high school prospects, combining what scouts say about players with numbers from games, finding those players who might have fallen through the cracks because they're at a smaller school or didn't have outstanding statistics.
After earning his doctorate, Johnson went on to work at various institutions, including Los Alamos National Laboratory, Stanford University and Yahoo! He said even though his current occupation doesn't relate directly to his previous ones, "There are themes I've taken from jobs, and in a lot of ways, my style of work is consistent with my past experience."
Johnson, 31, still enjoys playing sports even though he works for a professional organization. He is a competitive triathlete and cyclist and also played basketball when he was a student at IU. In fact, the summer before his freshman year, Johnson ran into Bob Knight at Assembly Hall and asked to be a manager for the basketball team. Knight agreed, and Johnson spent the next four years working for the Hall of Fame coach.
"I never got paid, but it was the most valuable thing from my college career," Johnson said.
While working with Knight, Johnson not only gained management skills but also made connections with various members of the athletic world and was given access to athletes, coaches and members of the media.
Johnson said the skills he gained from Knight, like the ability to make quick decisions, are ones he still uses today.
"Working (for Knight) was an exercise in psychology and tactics," Johnson said.
Johnson encourages college students to make the most of their college careers, whether it's getting the most out of classes, joining clubs or being adventurous. He also encourages people to think of ways to connect their passions. Johnson was lucky enough to connect his passion for math with his love for sports, but he understands it is a difficult thing to do.
"You're not going to get paid to watch television and eat pizza," he said. "But if you can find even one part of your passion and connect it with a job, that will help."
As for the Cardinals' 2004 season, Johnson can't promise anything more than the team had a good off-season and acquired the talent that should make them competitive, but he does know for certain he will be using his skills to help in the process.
"I try not to predict what will happen," Johnson said. "I like to compute what the percentages are of something happening."
Note: Read more about Mark Johnson and SportMetrika at sportmetrika.com