Fox Sports Bay Area Interview Transcript

[00:13]
Despite the rules and structure, the game is in many ways defined by its randomness.

[00:19]
Anything can happen. Every moment contains possibilities that sometimes defy what seems possible and since it is the nature of people to try and connect the dots stats like ERA and batting average were born so to help us deconstruct the random nature of baseball we took in a game with baseball statistician Mark Johnson a man who has made a living connecting the dots with any given pitch we're seeing two people taking a test according to mark the whole game can be broken down to various statistical formulas.

[00:50]
When to bunt, when to steal a base, when to hit and run or when to intentionally walk.

[01:03]
Behind each one of those decisions, there is some sort of model, there is some sort of equation that can be solved.

[01:07]
Okay, let's go to school. First question, what equals a run?

[01:13]
Some quantity that's a combination of singles plus doubles plus triples plus homeruns plus walks minus outs.

[01:26]
The challenge is statistically then is to understand what sort of weight do we give to each one of these different elements.

[01:30]
Okay, so what's the weight of a single?

[01:35]
For an average team in an average ballpark against an average pitcher it's an average defense. A single is going to change the state of the game to add about four-tenths of a run to the team at bat.

[01:53]
If that makes sense so far. Does that make sense so far? Yeah, but if a single and a walk both get a runner to first, is there any difference?

[01:59]
A walk will increase the number of runs expected in that inning by about 0.3 so you know a walk is good you know a walk is going to increase the number of expected runs but not quite as much as a single is going to do because a single gives your base runners an opportunity to advance more than one base.

[02:23]
You can determine that the value of a double is worth about 0.7 runs average, a triple is worth about one run, and a home run is worth about 1.4 runs. And the average of an out is roughly negative 0.3 runs.

[02:33]
Does that make sense? Of course. But in a team sport, can pitching stats accurately measure the effect of good or bad defense?

[02:43]
We have Jim Edmonds playing in center field. He's on the highlight reel quite a bit. We'll have a Cincinnati Red at bat. So let's suppose this batter hits a ball.

[02:54]
The first pitch he sees into center. Edmonds going. Jim Edmonds runs over, climbs the fence, how

[03:05]
is that scored today? The pitcher it's called an out, for the batter it's called an out, and for the fielder it's called an out. It's pretty simple.

[03:10]
What really happened is that the batter got about 99% of a home run.

[03:20]
The pitcher also gave up a home run, except he was supported by Jim Edmonds.

[03:26]
And what did Jim Edmonds do in that case? Is he stole a home run.

[03:32]
I think most of the statistics you see have some value.

[03:38]
But I think baseball is a game of human beings at the end of the day. It's difficult to measure the effect of team synergy, it's difficult to measure the desire that a player has to get better.

[03:50]
On this particular night, with no Jim Edmonds in sight, the Reds beat the Giants 7-4. But according to Mark, statistics still give the Giants hope.

[04:01]
Because of all the randomness that happens in baseball is that one game is just one game, it's just one instance of everything that could possibly happen in the game. I mean one of the reasons you play 162 games in a season, you can be argued that it takes that long to figure out who's the best team.

[04:17]
And maybe it takes that long to connect the dots.